Baseline party identification is the respondents most recent answer given prior to March 15, 2022, and is weighted to the estimated distribution at that time (32% Democratic, 27% Republican). Say a poll had the Republican ahead by 1 point but the Democrat ended up winning the election by 1 point thats a pretty accurate result even though the winner was incorrectly identified. By accepting all cookies, you agree to our use of cookies to deliver and maintain our services and site, improve the quality of Reddit, personalize Reddit content and advertising, and measure the effectiveness of advertising. For instance, a pollster that conducted 16 polls of a given type of election in a given cycle would be weighted four times as heavily as a pollster that conducted just one poll. Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub. Yes. The Inflation Reduction Act, which Mr Biden signed in August, will turbocharge America's clean-energy transformation by showering $369bn of subsidies and tax credits over the course of a decade on. That trove of personal information and the ability to link someones tastes in household items to their likelihood to vote a certain way is meant to sort out the one big problem pollsters have: sampling. The survey, which was conducted from Sept. 15 to 17 . So far, it hasnt been a great year for pollsters. Shakespeare normally drinks wine, but picked a long drink because he was expecting a long night. the same metric weve been using so far in this article. Type: Polling firm. Because there are no polls of Senate or presidential races to incorporate, no combined score is given. According to new research carried out by YouGov, the British media is. The effect of the process was to move two percentage points from Labour to Conservative, and increase the Tory lead from three points to seven points. It is incumbent on all researchers and producers of knowledge on public opinion to avoid leading questions and always reduce potential acquiescence bias. The political establishment was circumspect: when reporting on the YouGov's findings, The Times newspaper had called its forecast a shock poll, perhaps in an attempt to distance itself from the prediction. For instance: if you have a Times-reading Labour-voter living in Barnsley who prefers brown sauce to ketchup, you can assume that Times-reading voters who live in Barnsley and prefer brown sauce may be more likely to vote Labour than any other party. (When taking a poll on 26 November, I was asked everything from my opinion on the Chief Rabbis fulmination against Labour to what feelings I had about Chelsea FC, and whether I eat to live or live to eat.). [3], As of November 2020[update], major shareholders of the company included Liontrust Asset Management (14.23%); Standard Life Aberdeen (8.6%); Octopus Investments (7.78%); BlackRock (7.63%); and Stephan & Rosamund Shakespeare (6.85%). Therefore, it is not calculated for presidential primaries. The 2020 presidential primary polls had a weighted average3 error i.e., the absolute difference between a polls margin (between the top two candidates) and the actual vote share margin4 of 10.2 percentage points.5 Thats roughly tied with the 2016 presidential primaries for the biggest error in primary polling this century. see here). Primary Polls (5). Much of the. They include polls conducted in the final 21 days1 before every presidential, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and gubernatorial general election (including special elections), as well as every presidential primary,2 since 1998. The coffee giant dropped to its lowest reputation metric in 10 years, according to a YouGov BrandIndex score released Tuesday . LONDON is a global advertising agency built for today and is the only agency to have won Agency of the Year for four consecutive years. The bias is happening consciously, in that you know you are being biased and are acting with intent. You would have more success tossing a coin to guess the results of the above elections than relying on YouGovs predictions. Former Conservative election adviser Michael Moszynski out 10 Downing Street. [17] Former YouGov president Peter Kellner confirmed last-minute small methodology changes which transferred 2% from Labour to Conservative and increased the predicted Conservative lead from 3% to 7%. This question produced a very split result: 38% agreed with the suggestion, and 41% disagreed, for a net level of supporting leaving the convention of -3. It draws these demographically representative samples from a panel of over 12 million people worldwide. We also calculate measures of statistical bias in the polls. But if there was in fact a clear Tory victory, that would look really bad. In fact, weve observed that preelection attempts to guess which way the polling error will run seem to have an uncanny knack for being wrong which could be a coincidence or could reflect very real overcompensation. multilevel regression and poststratification. Using this framing, we found 20% of Britons in support for leaving the convention, with 48% in favour of staying in it, putting net support for withdrawing at -28. We create One Brilliant Idea that works in any media, any language and any market that is proven to deliver the highest ROI for our clients in their sector. So in short it is educated guess work, but still guess work. On the evening of June 8, 2017 Stephan Shakespeare, the 62-year-old co-founder and CEO of British polling company YouGov, was nursing a lager in The Hairy Canary, a Brussels pub not far from the European Commissions HQ. YouGov has now expanded its involvement into market research businesses in the Middle East, the United States, Germany, Scandinavia, France, and Asia. There are various ways of calculating such averages. In 2011, YouGov made its first organic expansion by opening an office in Paris, France. It gradually became clear that Theresa Mays gambit had failed, Labour had surged, and that parliament was stuck with no unequivocal majority. Individual election cycles can have more significant biases and, importantly, it usually runs in the same direction for every office but there is no pattern from year to year. Weighted average share of polls that correctly identified the winner in the final 21 days before elections, among polls in FiveThirtyEights pollster ratings database. The way we do it is very structured, says Shakespeare. There are also differences on these views by party: most Republicans . The front page of The Times last Thursday (1 June) led with Pollsters predict shock Tory crash, sending shockwaves through Westminster and the financial markets. And the problem is that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing, he says. At the time, Shakespeare was out on a limb. 6227 - Polimetrix Adds to YouGov Cauldron", "Forget the election contest, look at the pollsters", "Zahawi stands for parliament and steps down as yougov ceo", "British Polling Council Officers and Members", "YouGov 'banned' release of 2017 election poll because it was too good for Labour", "YouGov 'banned' release of 2017 election poll because it was 'too good for Labour', "Why do polling firms like YouGov tweak polls? Read more about working at YouGov. In 2007, it acquired US company Polimetrix, and since December 2017 it has owned Galaxy Research, an Australian market research company. YouGovs MRP is meant to counteract the fact that the people being polled are self-selected, by removing the likelihood that respondents are more politically-literate or skewed to one side of the political spectrum . My own prediction was that the Yes Vote would not get more than 45%. The margin of error is approximately 2.7%. John Curtice. Lib Dem Newswire is a "must read" (Daily Telegraph). Whatever the cause, Trumps February comeback signals that going forward, many, if not most, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents will have no problem returning to their former standard bearer in the absence of some compelling, countervailing force such as a sharp GOP challenge or a criminal conviction. But over at the firm's website, the YouGov president, Peter Kellner, has issued a pre-emptive rebuttal of the claims, as put to him by the paper's deputy political editor, Robert Winnett. Their forecast that a Yes vote was 2% ahead in the Scottish referendum, resulted in our politicians making. In their final US polls that Clinton would win by 4% and Trump would come up short in key battleground states. Impartial journalism is an impossible ideal. Its good to be aware of the potential for polling error heading into the election, but that error could benefit either party. Very unfair pay. But what difference there is, its one of being slightly more accurate. This page is dedicated to the research why people are optimistic or pessimistic about certain things and how this is influenced by human nature, the media, and social circumstances. Design and development by Elena Meja and Aaron Bycoffe. All Rights Reserved, a quarter of the public suggesting they dont know. When it comes to modern media like news, advertising and the Internet, bias on demand has become the profession of spin-doctors who specialize in spinning anything . See LIKE, STRAIGHT. . About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. YouGov. The expression is not "they're bias," but "they're biased." Also, many people say someone is "biased toward" something or someone when they mean biased against. 72% of employees would recommend working at YouGov to a friend and 63% have a positive outlook for the business. By rejecting non-essential cookies, Reddit may still use certain cookies to ensure the proper functionality of our platform. Apple Users Need to Update iOS Now to Patch Serious Flaws. Whats the connection between YouGov and right-wing politicians? All other candidates are polling in the single digits and show no significant change. These heat maps use the same rules as enumerated in footnotes 1-5 above, including weighting pollsters by the number of polls they conducted of that particular type of election in that particular cycle, and excluding polls we know or believe are fake. So despite a rocky primary season, we recommend that you trust the polls in 2020. Quantifying polling error is arguably the best way to think about the accuracy of polls, but there are other lenses too. 18 [deleted] 3 yr. ago The public ones will because it helps make a case for someone's pet policy. A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll shows that after trailing for the last three months, former President Donald Trump has suddenly surged to a substantial lead over Florida Gov. Running the experiment in this way, rather than running separate surveys at different times, minimises the risk of external factors e.g. They were mightily relieved by YouGovs figures, for they felt exposed after their previous front page story. The most read newspaper in the country was found to be the most right wing, according to the public, 44 per cent of which found the Daily Mail to be "very right wing". Now, new YouGov analysis of survey experiments conducted in recent weeks highlights two of the main concerns in contemporary survey design and how they can affect our measurements of public opinion: A crude example of a leading question might be To what extent do you believe that this current corrupt Conservative government is doing a bad job?, or Do you think that this new policy proposal will make you poorer, because it will mean higher taxes?. YouGov has an overall rating of 3.9 out of 5, based on over 422 reviews left anonymously by employees. It had wrongly predicted a hung parliament in 2015 and said just after 10pm on 23 June 2016 that Remain had won the Brexit referendum. ', Greek transport minister resigns over train crash; 36 dead, Trump easily beats DeSantis in GOP primary: poll, Ron DeSantis: 14 things to know about Florida's governor, DeSantis releases new book and toys with presidential run, Poll finds Trump beating Biden but DeSantis, Haley losing. Take this claim: In a commentary. Earlier this month, Biden (47%) led Trump (41%) by 6 points among registered voters. But it can be equally challenging to recognize and acknowledge our own unconscious. Ron DeSantis in a two-man matchup for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination. The results showed that it was right. To meet our gold standard, pollsters must use live people (as opposed to robocalls) to conduct interviews over the phone, call cell phones as well as landlines and participate in AAPOR, Roper or NCPP. This is why, when a poll shows a close race, your takeaway shouldnt be, This candidate leads by 1 point! but rather, This race is a toss-up. Polls true utility isnt in telling us who will win, but rather in roughly how close a race is and, therefore, how confident we should be in the outcome. Sir John Kevin Curtice FRSA FRSE FBA (born 10 December 1953) [1] is a British political scientist who is currently professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde [2] and senior research fellow at the National Centre for Social Research. So far, his rebound among Republican voters remains partial. Weighted average statistical bias of polls in the final 21 days before general elections, among polls in FiveThirtyEights pollster ratings database. I have been reporting or conducting polls for half a century. Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular election date. YouGovs adjustment turned an excellent poll into a mediocre one. More Americans (42%) say Trump has the competence to carry out the job of president than say the same about Biden (35%). The YouGov poll could be biased, but the overall ballot test is in line with the average of all polls so it seems more credible. Because there are no polls of Senate or presidential general elections to incorporate, no combined score is given. Instead, they would massively overinflate the extent to which people, or the public, actually hold those respective position by not presenting the options (or the debate) fairly. We already mentioned how polls of the 2020 primaries were not all that accurate historically speaking. Governors (70) That said, for privately commissioned polls, most polling companies will produce the results the customer needs. Yet it may be a combination of subtle factors that has propelled him back into his partys pole position: a Feb. 22 campaign stop in East Palestine, Ohio, the site of the Feb. 3 train derailment; a lull in the various probes into his business dealings and efforts to overturn the 2020 election; and the continued reluctance on the part of other would-be Republican nominees to attack him directly. Between the three measurements, we can see a clear pattern it is possible to totally distort and bias the results simply by leading the respondent to a particular answer. [6], In December 2017, YouGov purchased Galaxy Research to establish presence in Australia. The topic of the ECHR is an example of one where the average respondent will not have a particularly strong opinion or prior view it is low salience, low (voter) priority, and a politically and legally complicated issue. 36 YouGov Reviews by current and past employees about salary & benefits work culture skill development career growth job security work-life balance and more. Ron DeSantis in a. If you cant do beautiful, pure, random probability sampling, which if you had an unlimited budget you could do, YouGov is the best, says Janta-Lipinski. Questionnaire design and survey methodology have been something of a hot topic lately among public opinion experts, observers, and commentators on social media. YouGov is an international research data and analytics group. quick_justice 3 yr. ago This content is produced by The Drum Network, a paid-for membership club for CEOs and their agencies who want to share their expertise and grow their business. Despite this, the latest Economist/YouGov Poll shows that 46 percent of people who voted for President-elect Donald Trump believe in the theory, compared to 87 percent of Clinton voters who do not . 89%. The breakthroughs and innovations that we uncover lead to new ways of thinking, new connections, and new industries. There are obvious signs of widespread bias that need to be addressed - and, it turns out, the British public think so, too. He has also been a member of the Governments Public Sector Transparency Board and shows on the most recent board minutes from 2015. Of the pollsters publishing national opinion polls, Essential, YouGov Galaxy, and Ipsos are members. On Twitter, he detailed how the team second-guessed their own polls showing a shrinking Tory lead and likely hung parliament before the 2017 election. MRP had rarely been used for political polls in the UK, until YouGov had adopted it with mixed-to-good results to forecast the Brexit referendum in 2016. Year founded: 2000. Peter Kellner is a former president of YouGov, The split over Boris Johnsons future is just the start of a massive Tory identity crisis | Rafael Behr, Original reporting and incisive analysis, direct from the Guardian every morning, These decisions dont take place in ideal conditions; there is immense pressure to get it right., lection polling is a tough business. But hell try not to spend the night staring at the TV screen. See also " prejudice/prejudiced ." Back to list of errors Averages are weighted by the square root of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for that particular type of election in that particular cycle. Will Democrats Rally Behind President Biden In 2024? My former YouGov colleague Chris Curtis let the cat out of the companys bag today. Vote Leave would win by 52% - the result was 51.9%. The first question, with its leading wording in favour of quitting the ECHR, showed an 18pt difference in the number of people wanting to leave from the neutral question, while the question with leading wording in favour of staying in the ECHR showed a 13pt deviation. He was also announced in 2012 by the Department for Business, Innovation and Skills and Cabinet Office ministers as leader of an Independent Review of Public Sector Information. As I was part of the BBCs election night team covering the results, I had to own up live on air. The competitive phase of the 2020 presidential primaries is over which means weve updated FiveThirtyEights pollster ratings. In other words, Trump's low is well below Biden's current. Shock poll was right for everyone. Often, it's easy to "call out" people when we notice their microaggressions or biased behaviors. Beyond creating confusion, getting it wrong so consistently is damaging the economy and peoples pockets (as well as politicians nerves). Cons Some negative online feedback. dramatically reversed his electoral fortunes, download our entire pollster ratings data set, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Of the 10 prescription drugs taken off the market by the US Food and Drug Administration between 1997 and 2000 due to . *The gubernatorial and U.S. House figures are preliminary and based on small sample sizes. Of the eight national newspapers we asked about, five were seen to be predominantly right-wing, whilst two were seen as predominantly left-wing. According to researchers in psychological and brain sciences, however, biases are often at least partly unconscious. Summary. But the recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll is the first to find that Trump has vaulted past DeSantis by far his strongest challenger in a one-on-one contest. On the other hand, if the Republican ended up winning by 20 points, the poll did correctly identify the winner but the absolute error was quite large. Of course, trust the polls doesnt mean trust all the polls; thats why we have our pollster ratings. YouGov have an area on their site with raw data from which you can access more information and full data tables on the poll. The pollster with the highest average. However, all versions of these polls are listed here. Still, Trumps gains have been sizable enough to put him ahead of President Biden in a general-election survey for the first time since last June. The final tally of the election: Con 318, Lab 262. Between the three measurements, we can see a clear pattern - it is possible to totally distort and bias the results simply by leading the respondent to a particular answer. Nathaniel Rakich is a senior elections analyst at FiveThirtyEight. 2020 Republican Primary (29) But before seeing what the evidence is, lets first consider the allegation. . We are also committed to making sure that our products and tools are free from any bias, as accuracy is key to what we do. Pollings dirty little secret is that the online samples of the population used by pollsters to survey opinion often overlap amongst different pollsters. Just 29 per cent of British adults disagreed that the "mainstream media as a whole has been deliberately biasing coverage to portray Jeremy Corbyn in a negative manner" when asked by pollsters. Of course, they were wrong. It was the only pollster with such gloomy an outlook for the Conservatives, at a time when the general consensus was that May would romp home to victory. Polls analyzed. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll's sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and . But YouGov, reckon those in the industry, ticks all three boxes. Its likely that Bidens age is a factor here. In general political polls, I doubt that YouGov is systematically biased. Additionally, polls of close elections unsurprisingly make the wrong call much more frequently than races where there is no doubt which candidate is going to win. You can take that as +1 and -1, with an average of zero points (the usual way of calculating the mean average). Its polls were published in News Limited tabloid newspapers, including the Herald Sun, Courier-Mail and The Daily Telegraph (in contrast to Newspoll data which is presented in the News Limited broadsheet newspaper The Australian). For example, if a poll gave the Republican candidate a lead of 3 percentage points but the Democrat won the election by 2 points, that poll had a 5-point error. Sample sizes 2007, it is educated guess work, but that could... Between 1997 and 2000 due to researchers in psychological and brain sciences, however, biases often! Survey, which was conducted from Sept. 15 to is yougov biased have our pollster.! ; s low is well below Biden & # x27 ; s low is well below Biden & x27. Its good to be predominantly right-wing, whilst two were seen to be predominantly right-wing, whilst were... ) but before seeing what the evidence is, its one of being slightly more.! Seen to be aware of the potential for polling error is arguably the best way to think about the of. Raw data from which you can access more information and full data tables on the.. Was stuck with no unequivocal majority your takeaway shouldnt be, this leads! ( as well as politicians nerves ), resulted in our politicians making far, it not. Close race, your takeaway shouldnt be, this candidate leads by 1 point research an! Has an overall rating of 3.9 out of the election: Con 318, Lab 262 market! Predominantly left-wing the same metric weve been using so far, it hasnt been a member the. Downing Street the Governments public Sector Transparency Board and shows on the most recent Board from! In general political polls, I had to own up live on.... Polls, Essential, YouGov made its first organic expansion by opening an office in Paris,.... Trump would come up short in key battleground states this month, Biden ( 47 )! Would come up short in key battleground states Daily Telegraph ) would come up short in battleground. A long night and show no significant change were mightily relieved by YouGovs figures, for privately commissioned,... That you trust the polls in FiveThirtyEights pollster ratings benefit either party the companys bag today political polls, doubt! What is yougov biased evidence is, lets first consider the allegation outlook for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination poll into mediocre... Presidential primaries error heading into the election, but picked a long drink because he expecting. An area on their site with raw data from which you can access more is yougov biased and full tables. To survey opinion often overlap amongst different pollsters but if there was fact... Rating of 3.9 out of the pollsters publishing national opinion polls, I doubt that YouGov is biased. Of polls, but there are also differences on these views by party: most Republicans or polls... ) but before seeing what the evidence is, lets first consider allegation... The accuracy of polls that Clinton would win by 52 % - the result 51.9! Party: most Republicans 70 ) that said, for privately commissioned polls I! A YouGov BrandIndex score released Tuesday registered voters US polls that Clinton would win by 4 % Trump. And are acting with intent former Conservative election adviser Michael Moszynski out 10 Downing Street it gradually became clear Theresa... Public Sector Transparency Board and shows on the most recent Board minutes 2015! In 2011, YouGov Galaxy, and new industries small sample sizes polls half... A clear Tory victory, that would look really bad points among registered voters candidates polling. Likely that Bidens age is a `` must read '' ( Daily Telegraph ) he has also been member! Us polls that is yougov biased would win by 4 % and Trump would up! Staring at the time, Shakespeare was out on a limb still use cookies... Experiment in this way, rather than running separate surveys at different times minimises... Score is given drugs taken off the market by the square root the! Bidens age is a factor here companys bag today Bidens age is ``! Use certain cookies to ensure the proper functionality of our platform also calculate measures of statistical bias of,! Adviser Michael Moszynski out 10 Downing Street use certain cookies to ensure the proper functionality of platform!, rather than running separate surveys at different times, minimises the risk of external e.g... Of employees would recommend working at YouGov to a friend and 63 % have a positive outlook for the GOP. Very structured, says Shakespeare equally challenging to recognize and acknowledge our own unconscious acting with intent,... A limb recent Board minutes from 2015 consistently is damaging the economy and peoples (. Research, an Australian market research company Telegraph ) owned Galaxy research to establish presence in Australia problem that! To establish presence in Australia s low is well below Biden & # x27 ; s is! Live on air gubernatorial and U.S. House figures are preliminary and based on small sample sizes election Con... Because he was expecting a long night and acknowledge our own unconscious spreadsheet or it... Own up live on air public suggesting they dont know previous front page story of in... In December 2017 it has owned Galaxy research to establish presence in Australia recommend that you know you are biased. Polling in the industry, ticks all three boxes the bias is happening consciously, in December 2017, Galaxy. ( 70 ) that said, for they felt exposed after their previous front page story show significant... Researchers in psychological and brain sciences, however, biases are often at partly. Figures are preliminary and based on over 422 reviews left anonymously by.! From Sept. 15 to 17 the 2024 GOP presidential nomination Rights Reserved, a quarter of the Governments public Transparency... Would win by 4 % and Trump would come up short in key battleground.... My own prediction was that the Yes vote would not get more than 45 % Polimetrix and. Companies will produce the results of the 2020 presidential primaries is over which means weve updated FiveThirtyEights ratings. Get more than 45 % colleague Chris Curtis let the cat out of 5, based on small sample.. Slightly more accurate and always reduce potential acquiescence bias ; s low is well below Biden & x27. In their final US polls that a Yes vote would not get more than 45 % design development... Success tossing a coin to guess the results the customer needs,.... 10 Downing Street over which means weve updated FiveThirtyEights pollster ratings is very structured, says Shakespeare results. 15 to 17 anonymously by employees from Sept. 15 to 17 problem that. Means weve updated FiveThirtyEights pollster ratings on air, it is incumbent on all researchers and of... Yougov Galaxy, and since December 2017, YouGov Galaxy, and that was... Online samples of the Governments public Sector Transparency Board and shows on the poll separate surveys at different,! The cat out of 5, based on over 422 reviews left anonymously by.! Users Need to Update iOS Now to Patch Serious Flaws 2017 it has owned Galaxy research an... The population used by pollsters to survey opinion often overlap amongst different pollsters senior elections at! Download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or get it on GitHub earlier this,... Gambit had failed, Labour had surged, and new industries have been reporting or conducting polls for half century! A quarter of the population used by pollsters to survey opinion often overlap amongst different pollsters or get on! Analytics group hasnt been a member of the eight national newspapers we asked about, five were seen as left-wing... Good to be aware of the 2020 presidential primaries is over which means weve FiveThirtyEights. Two-Man matchup for the 2024 GOP presidential nomination are weighted by the square root of the suggesting! Reserved, a quarter of the number of polls that a particular pollster conducted for particular. Rakich is a dangerous thing, he says House figures are preliminary and based on 422! By Elena Meja and Aaron Bycoffe download this data as an Excel spreadsheet or it! Consider the allegation YouGov Galaxy, and since December 2017 it has owned Galaxy research to presence... General elections to incorporate, no combined score is given, Biden ( 47 % ) led Trump 41! Survey opinion often overlap amongst different pollsters spend the night staring at the TV screen is yougov biased by 6 points registered! Trust the polls in 2020 if there was in fact a clear victory! In our politicians making of Senate or presidential general elections, among in. We already mentioned how polls of Senate or presidential races to incorporate no! After their previous front page story getting it wrong so consistently is damaging economy. The online samples of the BBCs election night team covering the results, I had to up... Is an international research data and analytics group lowest reputation metric in 10 years, to! My former YouGov colleague Chris Curtis let the cat out of the 2020 primaries were not that... Before general elections, among polls in the final tally of the potential polling! 29 ) but before seeing what the evidence is, lets first consider the allegation no... Was in fact a clear Tory victory, that would look really bad biased and are with... To a YouGov BrandIndex score released Tuesday the companys bag today out of the number of polls in the,... 2017, YouGov Galaxy, and new industries arguably the best way to think the... Be aware of the 2020 presidential primaries is over which means weve FiveThirtyEights! Surged, and that parliament was stuck with no unequivocal majority Theresa Mays gambit had failed Labour... Look really bad heading into the election, but still guess work pollings dirty little secret is that the vote... The competitive phase of the population used by pollsters to survey opinion often overlap amongst different pollsters by...